Graphic design by akarawut
This is the final part of our annual report under the theme “End of the Walkway”—the final destination of mass lawfare in the present era that is about to be past, concomitant with the ending of the mission of the Ratsadonprasong Fund that began by helping people access the right to bail for fighting their case, then went on to helping with the costs of travel until sentencing, and finally to helping detainees and their families when their legal fight ended in prison.
We explained in the first part of this year’s report the “million-dollar question” of future plans for the 33-million-baht of bail remaining in the court system at the end of 2024. We shared three big numbers of 2024 that were roughly in the same ballpark: the 6.31 million baht of bail differential (total returned minus total posted) we got back was pretty much all gone due to the 7.4 million baht in total expenses in reimbursements for costs of travel, damages, detainee support, and detainee family support, plus another 7.4 million baht in total loss from bail forfeitures from fugitives.
At rates like this, even though we had a million dollars saved up in the court’s piggy bank to distribute to those still fighting their case and those waiting for their release from prison, that number has been dwindling throughout this year, 2025, in permanent expenses to defendants, detainees, and detainee families, and in losses resulting from bail forfeitures which continue to occur. Our mission as a fund for the right to bail is thus on a countdown.
This final installment takes a long-range view of bail movements over a period of three years and eight months from January 2022 to August 2025 to analyze the trends of bail postings and returns as the era winds down.
New Cases vs Judgments/Terminated Cases
The graph shows that from 2023 onwards, the number of defendants who received judgments or whose cases were terminated overtook the number of defendants in newly prosecuted cases, by far. At the same time, the number of newly prosecuted cases (whether from new incidents or from old incidents being brought anew to court) steadily decreased, from triple-digit in 2022 to double-digit in 2023 to single-digit in 2024 and 2025. Due to this decrease, we can predict that all the cases that have reached the court level will conclude in the next year or two.
Bail Posted vs Bail Returned
In a similar fashion to the numbers of defendants in new cases vs in judgments/terminated cases, the number of bail postings started to be overtaken by the number of bail returns in 2023. Nevertheless, you may observe that the downward-trending dark line of bail postings is still nowhere near zero. This is because the majority of bail postings these past few years occur at later phases or levels of the judicial process, i.e. repostings, rather than the first posting for a new case. The next graph will break it down by level.
Bail Posting Trends By Level
This ratio graph shows the percentage shares over the years of bail postings at different phases of the criminal justice system. The changing thicknesses of each color stratum show an overall movement of cases toward the end of the assembly line. For example, the proportion of bail postings at the investigation (police) level falls from 21.6% in 2022 to under 10% in 2024 and 2025, while the proportion of those at the final appeal level grows from 0.6% in 2022 to 20.3% in 2025.
You may notice that there is no clear movement for the proportion of bail postings at the trial level (that is, courts of the first instance), which bounces between 40+% and 60+% from year to year. However, if we count by the absolute number of postings instead of their relative share, a decreasing trend can be seen: 330 at the trial level in 2022; 97 in 2023; 74 in 2024; and 33 in 2025 (counting to August only—the projected number for the entire year is 49).
Bail Return Trends By Reason
Another sign of the slow but sure conclusion of cases can be detected from the side of bail returns, which is categorized here by reason of return. The six reasons are in order of stage in the criminal justice system. The following explains the range of cases grouped under each reason:
- “End of investigation period” includes cases which the investigating officer failed to hand to the prosecutor within the 6-month timeframe, and cases where new bail has been posted at the prosecution level, resulting in the return of investigation-phase bail.
- “End of prosecution period” includes cases which the prosecutor failed to file to court within the required timeframe, and cases for which, after filing, new bail has been posted at the trial level.
- “Bail withdrawn” includes cases where the court revoked bail due to the court’s opinion that the defendant violated bail conditions, and cases where the defendant requested to withdraw bail because they were currently in detention or serving a sentence in another case, or as a way to protest the court.
- “Change of security/bailor” includes cases where there was a request to switch out the security or the bailor before judgment.
- “Judgment/termination of case” includes cases where bail was returned after the defendant appealed the court’s judgment to a higher court to which new bail was posted with a new security or a new bailor, cases where bail was returned after the judgment was final, and cases where the juvenile court used a rehabilitative measure in place of handing down a judgment.
From the graph you can see the very clear growth of the shares of bail returns after judgment/termination of case: the 28.5% (71 contracts) in 2022 jumped to the 85.1% (400 contracts) and 81.0% (230 contracts) in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and most recently to the 93.6% (162 contracts) in 2025.
End of the Assembly Line
To sum up once again where people’s donations are going, we made this final diagram depicting the full circuit. On top of the diagram are the people who send in their money to the court in exchange for the freedom of fellow citizens to fight their case. Along the assembly line of the justice process, there is a fork in the path beyond the control of bailors: some people emerge free, whether victorious or not; some end up in prison; and some turn that money-secured freedom into a flying disc to ride away from the assembly line. What remains is the money that will be returned from the court’s piggy bank, which will be rerouted to the care of defendants, detainees, and their families going forward, up until the end of incarceration and other case obligations, which will also mean the end of the fund’s mission and its obligations to the people under its care. Our starting point of the right to bail for a fair fight in court is now close to being void of all relevance.
And once the assembly line finishes running, there is a hope – that we won’t meet again.
Previously:
Or go back all the way to our 2022 Report: